Financial Summary (Update 8-10-16)
Dohmen Update (Sean M.)
This financial summary was sent to me by a tradcatknight follower. We are close to the collapse and then Maitreya appears on the "Day of Declaration"....
The Wealthy Prepare For The Financial Crisis By Constructing Panic Rooms
Yes, there are great inconsistencies. Williams writes that instead of
255,000 new jobs, the actual number may have been zero. His U-6
unemployment number actually increased to 23%. That’s if you count all
the people who have not been able to find a job in a year.
So there you can see that fudging the numbers is probably the
‘agenda,’ as we call it, at least until the end of the year. This
Administration doesn’t want to go out with a recession. The stock market
is easily manipulated. The numbers from Merrill Lynch’s research show
that all traditional major stock buyers have been big sellers this year
(see charts below). So, how can the stock market indices be at new
highs? Well, it’s not market forces.
CALPERS, the largest government pension fund for government
employees in the US, had a gain of around 0.7% last year. Pension funds
normally try to get at least 7% per year just to meet
pension obligations. They can’t do that in today’s environment.
Eventually this will require huge governmental bailouts.
Carter Worth, a very good technician, said that “stocks were the
worst place to be in over the last 14 months.” They returned 2%, while
Treasuries were up 19%, real estate up 14%, and precious metals vastly
outperformed the broader market. He apparently is not beholden to the
Wall Street line of TINA “There Is No Alternative” to stocks.
Goldman Sachs (GS) issued a quite bearish report for the stock
market. That means two things to us: 1) The period where Wall Street
produces false bullish stories and reports to get naïve money managers
to continue buying is over and 2) They have now sold their own long
portfolios and are probably nicely positioned on the short side in order
to profit from a downturn. This happened during the summer of 2008 as
well, which suggests time is running out for the bulls. In order to
prevent looking foolish when the stock market turns down, they now issue
a bearish report so later on they can say, “We told you so.”
Our view is that the market indices will continue to be supported
as long as Washington, together with the Fed, can fight reality. This
Administration doesn’t want to go out with a visible recession. Smart
and experienced money managers, such as the best hedge funds, are very
underinvested because they recognize all the negatives. We heard one
number that hedge funds are only 35% long.
We believe that only the election stands in the way of this
happening now. Until then, they will try to keep this market together
with chewing gum and bailing wire.
Now let’s look at a much broader and thus more important index, the
NYSE COMPOSITE. The index includes all the stocks on the NYSE. It is
now no higher than back in 2014. It is still a distance away from a new
high.
Auto Company Stocks Plunge! That’s the latest ‘surprise’ in the
media. Auto sales have been hyped for almost a year. We were virtually
alone in saying that the numbers were phony, deceptive, and designed to
“put lipstick on the pig.” You see, you are not supposed to know that
the economy is weakening. The illusion that the economy is doing OK,
even though the numbers have been weakening for well over a year, is
being perpetuated. It helps Wall Street sell IPO’s, and it helps
Washington leadership to claim that the “economy has never been better.”
They have similar motives: ‘deception.’ Here is the chart of FORD. It
is down over 34% since the top two years ago. That’s a big bear market
for a stock. In other words, the insiders who knew the truth have been
selling, while the individual investors were “hood-winked” with all the
bullish opinions in the media.
The Everyday American Is Tapped Out, Spending Is Way Down
Like we discussed earlier, the ‘agenda’ for the second half of the
year is to make everything look great. The Obama administration wants to
go out with a celebration of economic success. We are a ‘banana
republic’ now. The truth is whatever the leadership says it is. An
economist from a major Wall Street firm was recently on TV trying to
explain the numbers, and was noticeably sweating. That’s always a good
tip-off to the reality of things. Perceptions are important, which is
the reason so much effort goes into presenting the illusions that all is
well.
The CEO of Apple tells
investors that yes, sales and profits declined, but “not as much as had
been expected.” The same fairy tale is being told by commentators on
financial TV. They never ask, “Whose expectations?” We predicted the
Apple sales decline late last year and people questioned our ability to
forecast. But it was so predictable. The Apple CEO is too involved in
left-wing politics and not involved enough in innovation. Then we hear
that “people love Apple.” That’s history. Just speak with tech guys. One
young, smart sales person at a major tech retailer just told me, “I
don’t know why people still buy iPhones.” And then he mentioned the
brand we like and called it far superior in technology.
THE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE
IS DEFLATING Our analysis of critical economic and credit market factors
tells us that a global contraction is underway. We have commented that
the housing bubble may be bursting in some of the hottest areas of the
world as well as in the US. Miami, Manhattan, and now Silicon Valley are
weakening in a meaningful manner. Vancouver has had a huge rise in
housing prices, which is driving locals out of Vancouver as it is no
longer affordable. The buyers are mostly Chinese and many never live in
the properties. They are just using the real estate as a savings
account.
Other real estate bubbles are showing similar signs of bursting.
The Hamptons is one. Why is a small place like the Hamptons important?
Because that’s where the big money of New York and the hedge fund
industry gathers. When they tighten up on their spending, it is a big
warning.
Durable Goods: Economic
weakness in the US can be seen by ‘durable goods orders.’ They are now
down on a year-over-year basis since early 2015. Total factory orders
are down 6.4 percent which is the weakest in 4 years. Core capital goods
orders are down 3.7% which is the 17th decline in 18 months.
Wall Street economists
have been telling us for two years how the economy will start to
strengthen. Instead, it continues to weaken. The Fed looks at the
month-to-month numbers, whereas they should be focusing on the long term
trends. As Rick Santelli said, the Fed is now like a “day-trader.”
Italian Finance
Minister Pier Carlo Padoan denied that Italy’s banks have a systemic
problem. Mr. Padoan said, “We are going in the right direction, there is
no risk in terms of systemic stability.”
You know our rule: the stronger the denial of a problem by the
authorities, the closer you are to a crisis. The official stress test of
Italian banks will come this week.Related:
http://tradcatknight.blogspot.com/2016/08/economic-collapse-watch-john-williams.html
http://tradcatknight.blogspot.com/2016/06/coming-destruction-alan-greenspan-warns.html
http://tradcatknight.blogspot.com/2015/09/agenda-2030-and-new-economic-world.html
http://tradcatknight.blogspot.com/2016/04/economic-collapse-watch-economic.html
http://tradcatknight.blogspot.com/2016/01/financial-collapse-8-signs-that-global.html
http://tradcatknight.blogspot.com/2016/07/complete-collapse-of-everything.html
http://tradcatknight.blogspot.com/2015/06/economic-crash-watch-literally-your-atm.html
http://tradcatknight.blogspot.com/2016/04/the-fdic-issues-letter-warning-of.html