"And I beheld, and heard the voice of one eagle flying through the midst of heaven, saying with a loud voice: Woe, woe, woe to the inhabitants of the earth.... [Apocalypse (Revelation) 8:13]
Sunday, August 7, 2016
The Syrian endgame begins: The battle for Aleppo and 'Plan C'
The battle for Aleppo has forced the al Qaeda groups into their
desperate last stand, as the Washington-driven proxy war on Syria moves
into its final stages. The liberation of Aleppo will be the beginning of
the end.
The online maps have been misleading. Even before the Russian air power
intervention of September 2015 the Syrian Government controlled 85% of
the country's populated areas. But reclaiming all of Aleppo is critical
for Syrian control of the north and of supply lines to the shrinking
ground of ISIS in the east.
Syria's major problem has been Turkey's semi-open support for
jihadist armies crossing the 800km northern frontier, and the
Turkey-Saudi-Qatari backed advances of ISIS from the east. In
the past 10 months the Syrian Alliance has successfully pushed back on
both fronts. Further, since last month, Turkey is in disarray, with its
own problems.
Many follow the logic of dominant forces but, to understand the endgame
in this war, the logic of resistance is no less important. Syria is proving that independent peoples who unite and resist can end up with a greater say in the outcome.
Washington's war on Syria began with sectarian proxy armies sent
in to topple the government in Damascus. The western media continues to
speak of 'moderate rebels', but the evidence is clear that the US and its allies have backed every single armed group in Syria,
including the western group led by the group formerly known as Jabhat
al Nusra (now rebadged as 'Jabhat Fatah al-Sham', in a futile attempt to
avoid Syrian-Russian bombing), and the eastern group DAESH-ISIS. They all share a similar vicious, sectarian ideology.
Despite all the bloodshed and rhetoric, Plan A's aggression failed.
'Plan B' then aimed at partition of the country using, in part, what the US saw as its 'Kurdish card'.
Never mind that any such partition is against the terms of UN Security
Council resolution 2254, which reaffirms the UN's 'strong commitment to
the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of the
Syrian Arab Republic'. The US ignores such niceties.
Nevertheless, Plan B is failing due to the coherence of Syria's
communities, their support for the Syrian Army, and strong regional
solidarity, particularly from Iran, Russia, Hezbollah and the
nationalist Palestinian militia.
Even Syria's Kurdish militia have been coordinating with and relying on
the Syrian Arab Army. Whatever Syria's Kurds want, if put to a vote,
Syrians would not support a federalisation which would weaken the
country against its enemies.
Plan C
'Plan C' may be where forces better converge.
Washington's 'rogue state' is a very bad loser. It took Washington seven
years to withdraw from Vietnam, after it knew it was losing. However Syria has a master diplomat, in the form of the Russian President, willing and able to cloak a North American retreat with 'dignity'.
President Putin gave President Obama a way out, once before, back in
September 2013, over the fake chemical weapons stunt, carried out by
Jabhat al Nusra and its partners (see Anderson 2016, Chapter Nine). The
dismantling of Syria's chemical weapons stockpile (held as a deterrent
against Israel) prevented a US 'limited' missile strike on Syria.
We may well see a similar deal where Putin hails Obama's statesman like
role in helping bring peace to Syria, allowing Washington to put Syria
'on the backburner', as it did with Iran last year. Of course, this will
be a monstrous lie, but one that could help end the bloodshed.
Regime change in Turkey would certainly help with such a plan. But
whether or not Erdogan survives the mutiny of his own armed forces, a
strategic and economic tide is turning against the Turkish role in
Syria. As its proxy armies lose, Ankara is trying to repair its bad
relations with Russia while worsening those with Washington. Erdogan,
rightly or wrongly, blames the US for backing the recent coup attempt.
Any 'Plan C', in the few months that remain for the Obama
administration, would probably leave unresolved the question of the US
ideological campaigns and economic sanctions against Syria, Iran and
Hezbollah, Israel's key opponents.
The experience of Washington's previous wars in Latin America and
Vietnam tell us that the USA will try to keep alive its myths, its
'official history', as long as possible.
Aleppo is the final turning point in this conflict because, after the
liberation of Homs, Qsayr and Palmyra, definitive reverses are
destroying the morale of both the jihadists and their sponsors. Not even
fanatics are keen to join in an obviously losing cause.
Since last year the sectarian groups have been steadily ground down in
rural Damascus. The capital, with a population swollen to between 7 and 8
million people, has had very little rocketing, mortars or car bombs
this year. Street life is far more relaxed. Ceasefires have 'worked'
here because the remaining armed groups (in the East Ghouta and Daraya)
are substantially weakened and surrounded.
Yet, while Damascus regained some sense of security, a shocking war
raged on in Aleppo. As usual, the western media lied incessantly,
focussing exclusively on that part of the city held by the al Qaeda
groups and now including less than 200,000 people in total, including a
small army of intelligence agents from the US, UK, France, Turkey and
Israel, and several western NGOs such the White Helmets.
In more recent days small groups of jihadists have been
surrendering, to take advantage of a possible Presidential amnesty,
while dozens of residents pass out through Syrian and Russian army
controlled humanitarian corridors. Those checkpoints are run by
commando units, including General Suheil al Hassan's Tiger Forces, as
check points still face jihadist suicide car-bombs, as they did in
Palmyra.
Typically, there have been almost no western media stories about the 1.5 million in the government held area.
Over April-May many dozens of people were murdered across Aleppo as
civilian areas and major hospitals were bombed by the NATO-backed
'rebels'. They were even filmed firing their 'hell cannons' while saying
'throw it on the civilians' (Anderson 2016, 9 May). Nothing of this
emerged in the western corporate media.
In April-May the White Helmets claimed Russian or Syrian airstrikes had
destroyed 'al Quds hospital', killing the last paediatrician in Aleppo.
In fact, as Dr Nabil Antaki and the Aleppo Medical Association pointed
out, that facility was not a registered hospital at all, rather a
makeshift clinic in a damaged residential building in an al Nusra held
area. In fact, there are dozens of paediatricians in Aleppo's main
public hospitals (Antaki and Cattori 2016; Beeley 2016; Makhoul-Yatim
2016).
The mercenary gangs fired hundreds of rockets into the main part of
Aleppo, gassed the Kurdish areas of the city and publicly beheaded a
Palestinian boy, supposedly a spy for one of the Palestinian militia
which fights alongside the SAA. Typically, the BBC gave prominence to
jihadist claims that the publicly murdered 12 year old was 'a fighter'
(BBC 2016). Distorted coverage to the end.
The western media, still on its war footing, ran false stories that 'all
of Aleppo' was under siege, or that al Qaeda's field clinics were the
'only hospitals' in Aleppo. For example, Australian state media
reported: 'Syrian city of Aleppo running out of food as regime forces
surround city'. In fact, 15% of the population of Aleppo was under
Syrian Army siege. At the same time the entire country of Syria is under
siege by US, EU and Australian economic sanctions (ABC Radio National
2016).
Those stories matter less as they are displaced by the more immediate
video testimony of residents leaving the al Qaeda areas, only to praise
the Syrian Army and curse the western backed 'moderate' head choppers
(Geopolitics 2016).
The western backed jihadists are losing and the region's public mood is hardening.
Syrian civil opposition leader Moustafa Kelechi (not allied to the
armed groups) says the battle of Aleppo 'is a war to crush the Takfiri
groups' bones' (FARS News 2016). The Iraqi government, once thought a
mere puppet of the US, has repeatedly confirmed its close cooperation
with the Syrian Government's struggle against terrorist groups (SANA
2016).
The regional alliance forged during this war - Syria, Iran,
Russia, Iraq, Hezbollah and the nationalist Palestinian militia - will
maintain a strong role in both the Syrian endgame and across the region.
