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Friday, September 9, 2016

Who are Worse Liars, Central Bankers or Politicians?

Who are Worse Liars, Central Bankers or Politicians?

Andy Hoffman 

Oh, the phony world we live in!

There’s something to be said for provocative titles – and certainly, today’s will draw attention above and beyond the usual truth seeker.  That said, it was the obvious choice, as it was the only way to properly connect the parallel topics I intend to discuss, spanning the political, economic, and monetary spheres.

To start, there’s the pitifully sad deterioration of the Clinton campaign – which in my view, will not only mark the peak, and subsequent collapse, of the Democratic Party’s power, but the complete disgrace of the Clinton legacy.  Not that Republicans will benefit much, as Donald Trump has as little interest in the current status quo – i.e., big government, as Ron Paul.
To that end, recall my prediction, directly after the Brexit vote, that the U.S. election would end in a landslide for Trump – let alone, after Hillary’s traitorous email scandal emerged.  Well, my views are a thousand times more powerful now, given all that has since occurred – from the treasonous allegations about the Clinton Foundation; to Hillary’s obviously declining health, to Julian Assange essentially promising an all-out Wikileaks assault in the weeks leading up to the election.  Summing up the situation perfectly, an audience member came forward during last nights debate and commented in regards to the Hillary’s understanding of the ‘C’ on documents:
As a Naval flight officer I held the top secret sensitive compartmentalized information clearance. And that provided me access with materials and information highly sensitive to our war fighting capabilities. Had I communicated this information not following the prescribed protocols I would have been prosecuted and imprisoned. Secretary Clinton, how can you expect those such as myself who are and were trusted with America’s most sensitive information to have any confidence in your leadership as president when you clearly corrupted our national security.

Navy veteran Lt. John Lester
Now, let’s rewind two months – to just before the Brexit vote, when I wrote extensively of my vehement belief the referendum would succeed – in part because the polls, and betting lines, were rigged; and equally importantly, because the average person would rise above such “perception manipulation” to vote for what’s right – for both the country, and themselves personally.  Regarding the latter, I supplied comprehensive data – care of Zero Hedge – depicting how easily the Ladbroke’s betting line could be “moved” by large bets, given that a “large bet” was essentially “chump change” in the world of unfettered central bank money printing and market manipulation.
Well, yesterday afternoon, I listened to the latest Wayne Allen Root interview, on my good friend Kerry Lutz’s Financial Survival Network.  Wayne is perhaps America’s most widely watched, listened to, and read conservative political pundit – and after meeting him several years back, at a Kerry Lutz conference, I have a great deal of respect for him.  In fact, he reminds me a lot of myself, and what I might have been if I chose politics, not finance, as my vocation.  Just as my good friend Adam Meister is becoming in the crypto-currency sphere – whose free daily podcasts are a must listen, and whose help in setting up Trezor Bitcoin storage, which he can do for you as well, proved invaluable.
Back to Wayne, he hit home hard in his analysis that “Angry White Males” – like myself – will carry Trump to victory, whilst a lack of turnout amongst disenfranchised minorities that tend to vote Democrat, will cause a landslide.  Which, per above, I wholeheartedly agree with.  However, what really caught my attention is that not only do U.S. polls appear to be blatantly rigged to purport either a Hillary lead or a “dead heat,” when all anecdotal evidence – and common sense – scream otherwise; but that the UK’s Ladbrokes odds are lopsidedly on the wrong side of the trade, just as they were before the “leaves” handed the “remains” a lopsided Brexit loss.  In other words, like the U.S. polls that are continually “tweaked” to make it appear Hillary is doing well, the Ladbroke’s odds are, in my view, being “moved” by big status quo interests to, per the title of yesterday’s article, manage perspective.  That said, I believe that, just like the Brexit vote, where such manipulation catastrophically failed, it will fail in equally spectacular fashion on November 8th; as well as in upcoming elections and referendums the world round.
On to the economic, yesterday’s horrific PMI non-manufacturing Index confirmed the prior days’ catastrophic ISM non-manufacturing Index, depicting a nation in an outright manufacturing recession; and at best, flat-lining in the service sector.  That said, what is a service sector anyway, without a manufacturing base to support?  Particularly, when the vast majority of services are either non-productive or not-for-profit – which invariably, pay limited wages and no benefits?  I mean geez, the national debt has doubled in the last eight years alone, supporting “services” like ITT College, which collapsed on Tuesday – symbolically, on the “first day of school” – when the government no longer said it would fund its students’ loans; leaving 8,000 employees out of work; 40,000 students holding unpayable loans with no supporting degrees; and the U.S. taxpayer to pay the tab with higher taxes and further, unfettered dollar devaluation.  Sadly, the BLS’ report that weekly jobless claims hit a new 40-year low this morning – whilst yesterday’s “JOLTS” job opening index hit a multi-year high- are likely not lies.  The former, because so few people are eligible for unemployment insurance in today’s part-time “gig” economy – in large part, due to Obamacare and other onerous regulatory decrees; and the latter, because said “job openings” are so undesirable – or underpaid – that no one wants them.
Monetarily, it’s a toss-up between Richmond Fed governor Jeffrey Lacker and the ECB’s “Goldman Mario” himself, for the title of the day’s most transparent, disingenuous comments.  Regarding the former, the ongoing saga of the post-Jackson Hole lies, spin, and propaganda is rising to unprecedented heights of desperation, futility, and pathetic-ness.  To wit, my commentary last week; first, describing how Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer was hustled onto CNBC because Janet Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech didn’t generate the desired market effect (falling gold and rising rates) – to proclaim her comments were “consistent with the possibility of a September rate hike,” despite the obviously uber-dovish nature of her comments (which is  gold and Treasury bonds surged in the first place).


Next, how Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist, “Hapless Hatzius,” was trotted out a week later, following Friday’s miserable NFP jobs report, to raise his September rate hike odds from 40% to 55%, because it was not as bad as the whole world viewed it.  Well, it took just one trading day for him to lower his “odds” back to 40% (this is the type of things “normal” analysts get fired for); proving, yet again, that Washington, Wall Street, and the Fed are working together – as desperately and transparently as imaginable – to maintain the dying status quo as long as possible.
That said, it took a whopping one day for gold and Treasury bonds to surge anew, following Tuesday’s horrific ISM non-manufacturing Index and Labor Market Conditions reports.  So, what do you know, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who “luckily” for the Fed, was scheduled for a speaking engagement yesterday on Capitol Hill (ironically, to defend the Fed’s “independence”) – received a call on the “Bat-Phone,” ordering him to reiterate Yellen’s and Fischer’s propaganda that the “case for a September rate increase is strong.”
I mean, geez, just how thick can the lies be at this point?  And seriously, do they actually believe anyone is still listening?  Let alone, when September 21st comes and goes, and the Fed yet again fails to raise rates – either finding a convenient excuse (likely, from overseas), or simply ignoring the tidal wave of horrible data entirely.  I mean, the last three quarters have seen average GDP “growth” of 1%; and as mentioned above, recent jobs, manufacturing, and service data – let alone, durable goods, factory orders, productivity, retail sales, corporate earnings, debt accumulation, and essentially every quantifiable data set imaginable – screams recession!  Let alone, that a major election, in which the incumbents must win to preserve the status quo, is just two months away.  And yet, we’re told the “case for a September rate hike has strengthened,” despite actual money market odds predicting a mere 20% chance?
Well, that alone would have been worthy of an entire article about Central bank lies – except that Mario Draghi opened his trap this morning, at the much anticipated September ECB meeting.  According to “analysts,” the expectation was that rates would be held at -0.4%, whilst the psychotic, €80 billion/month QE program – which cumulatively surpassed €1 trillion last week – would be extended from its currently scheduled termination of March 2017, to September 2017.  After all, the second quarter European GDP and “inflation” figures were abysmal, with the Italian banking system’s plunge into the abyss looking more and more like a near-term event.  Let alone, the need to prop up sentiment for Deutsche Bank, and the rest of Europe’s rapidly dying “too big to fail” institutions.
As it turns out, rates were indeed maintained, but the ECB decided to pretend no further easing was needed for now – by claiming, LOL, that not only has nothing significantly worsened in the past month, but its current policies are “highly effective.”  Yeah, as “effective” as the Fed’s “strengthened case” for a September rate hike!
That said, the only reason he didn’t announce anything new today – like a fresh rate cut, a six-month QE extension, or the intention to buy junk bonds or equities – is because PPT-supported stock markets, which is all Central banks care about, were relatively calm during the easily manipulatable “summer doldrums.”  Not to mention, because the ECB has as much to lose from a status-quo-destroying Trump victory; let alone, the upcoming Italian referendum that will likely cause a giant political black hole in the middle of the most debt-infested European PIIG.  In other words, like the Fed, Draghi didn’t want to explicitly admit the need for further stimulus, even if his own words proclaimed that the ECB’s current economic outlook is “tilted to the downside.”
That said, who are we kidding here?  I mean, the language Draghi couched his inaction with was so violently uber-dovish, it could easily have been interpreted, in and of itself, as incremental monetary easing!  To wit, read what the ECB’s official statement was, below, and tell me if you think the ECB isn’t concerned – about a collapsing economy, and the impact on financial markets if it ever stops hyper-inflating.
The monthly asset purchases of €80 billion are intended to run until the end of March 2017, or beyond, if necessary“…whilst “interest rates will remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.”
In other words, they did everything they could to prevent actually announcing the new rate cuts, QE increases, and QE extensions we all know are coming.  Which, in this case, meant promising that not only are these scenarios likely, but that if the ECB ever did raise rates (ROFLMAO), it wouldn’t be until “well past” the end of QE.  In other words, he couldn’t be more transparent in his desperation, or more obviously trapped in the inescapable NIRP and QE vortices his own “whatever it takes” policies created – which ultimately, will prove to be the final straw in the European Union’s, and Euro currency’s, coffin.
Meanwhile, as this violently PM bullish news is flooding the tape, the Cartel is going hog wild trying to hold prices down.  However, there are simply too many balls to juggle these days, now that the Fall “witching hour” has arrived.  The “commercials” still have near record COMEX shorts, physical demand is still rising, and every conceivable political, economic, and monetary trend is going against them.  Heck, Swiss, German, and Japanese citizens are hoarding safes – and if you don’t think there will shortly be a mad dash to fill them with Precious Metals, I’m not sure what other evidence you’d need to realize it.

Politicians Lie