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Is The U.S. Government Stockpiling Food In Anticipation Of A Major Economic Crisis?

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Is The U.S. Government Stockpiling Food In Anticipation Of A Major Economic Crisis?

Is the U.S. government stockpiling huge amounts of food and supplies in anticipation that something bad is about to happen?  Is something about to cause a major economic crisis that will require large quantities of emergency food?  For a while, I have been hearing things about the government storing food through the grapevine and I have not been sure what to think about those rumors.  Well, today I received a phone call that blew me away.  I debated for quite a while before I decided whether or not to share this information with you all.


Normally I do not like to talk about anything unless I am able to prove it by pointing to an article in the mainstream media.  But the source of the information that I am about to share with you is rock solid.  I cannot reveal his name, so you will just have to trust me on that.  Hopefully the following information will be one more “dot” as we all try to connect the dots about what is really going on out there.


A Self Sustaining Source Of Fresh Meat,Vegetables And Clean Drinking Water

This morning I received a call from a very prominent person in the storable food industry.  He has asked me not to reveal his name.  I have been dealing with him for an extended period of time and I consider him to be a rock-solid source.  When I talked to him today, he had just received a huge order for storable food from a U.S. government source.  He told me that the dollar amount of the order was in the “five figures”.
When he asked about why so much food was being ordered, the government source told him essentially that “you know what is coming”.  When pushed further, the government official did not elaborate.

It was unclear whether this was part of a larger food stockpiling program by the government.  Perhaps this order was just part of the normal preparations that government agencies make for potential emergencies.
Nobody could blame the government for storing up some emergency food.  That is something that we all should be doing.
RELATED : Stockpiling food, ammo and fishing supplies for SHTF
The truth is that the government is taking emergency preparedness very seriously these days.  For example, you can see video of a high-level NASA official urging NASA employees to develop preparedness plans for their own families.
But what if this is a sign of something bigger?
Earlier this year, FEMA issued an RFI (Request For Information) that inquired about the availability of 140 million meals of emergency food.  Apparently the food was meant to be stored up in case there was a “catastrophic disaster event”.
Financial advice and preparedness
Unfortunately, shortages have not been limited to storable food.  Most Americans don’t realize this, but there is a significant shortage of certain pharmaceutical drugs in many areas of the country right now.
In addition, it is not just in the United States where food is being aggressively stored up.  Noted that governments all over the globe are now stockpiling food….(source)

RELATED : Food Riots Are Coming

How to Prepare an Emergency Kit for a Global Food Shortage

In the event of a global food crisis, it is vital to be prepared. The key  to preparedness is storing food that is easy to get a hold of, will last  for several years or even decades, and is somewhat nutrient-dense. While it  is always important to purchase high quality organic foods, in the event of  a food crisis it is often essential to exercise your survival skills, which  may mean it is hard to come across optimal food sources.
How to build your survival kit like a Special Forces soldier so your family will have the basics even if you have to run…

  RELATED : Are They Arming for Riots Across America? Homeland Stockpiling “Less Lethal Specialty Munitions” 

2016 Will Be One Disaster After Another-Egon von Greyerz

Financial expert Egon von Greyerz says the recent Fed rate hike will not help the financial markets. Greyerz predicts, “I think we will have one disaster after another, first in the junk bond market, then in emerging markets and, after that, the subprime markets. Subprime car loans and student loans I see as another massive problem area. It is going to be one thing after another that will unravel. Since 2008, when the world almost went under, we have printed or increased credit by 50% or by $70 trillion, and the world economy is still struggling to survive. I think the real change in confidence will come down when markets come down. . . . I think things will come down very quickly.”
Von Greyerz, who was a top European banker and stock market expert for nearly 20 years, points out, “World trade is coming down dramatically. . . .The Fed is totally out of sync with reality. This is a world market. The U.S. is not an island unto itself. . . . The sad think is the Fed has created a massive bubble. They should have increased rates a long time ago. By not letting the market forces take their due course, we now see in the U.S. the most massive asset bubble ever in history. That would not have happened if they would not have kept interest rates at 0% for 7 years. . . . There is nothing that justifies a rate increase, at this point, except the face saving measure taken by the Fed. They had told the market this, and they didn’t dare to do anything else. . . . I think what will happen now is this quarter of percent will not last for very long. It will have to come down. . . . All the indicators are that we are going to get shocks going into 2016, and their increases they are forecasting are not going to happen. It is more likely that they are going to lower rates.”
On currencies, von Greyerz says, “I think currencies worldwide will continue to come down, and the dollar is overvalued and is going to come down. Of course, that will mean people will start selling bonds. We know that the bond market is the biggest bubble in the world.”
Von Greyerz goes on to say, “I do not think the banking system will survive in its present form because the amount of debt outstanding will never be repaid. They will start with bail-ins, but that won’t be sufficient. Sadly, the depositors’ money will not be sufficient. To stop bank runs now, they are stopping people from taking out cash. That is not what people are going to want to see in the next year or so.”
So, what is the timing of the coming calamity? Von Greyerz admits he does not know, but contends, “We are not just talking about the U.S., we are talking about a global level. . . . Once it turns, it is going to happen very quickly. So, when will the turn come? The turn will not only be in the credit markets, but it will also be in the stock markets, and there will be a total loss of confidence. I am happy to admit that I thought these things would have happened already. I have been premature, but I look at risk. To me, you have got to buy your fire insurance before the fire, and we are likely to have a fire in the near term future.”

Greeks Told To Declare Cash "Under The Mattress", Jewelry And Precious Stones

When earlier today we read a report in the Greek Enikonomia, according to which Greek taxpayers would be forced to declare all cash "under the mattress" (including inside) or boxes that contain more than 15,000 euros as well as jewelry and precious stones (including gold) worth over 30,000 euros, starting in 2016, we assumed this has to be some early April fools joke or a mistake.
After all, this would be merely the first step toward full-blown asset confiscation, conducted so many times by insolvent governments throughout history, once the government cracks down on those who made a "mistake" in their asset declaration form or simply refuse to fill such a declaration, thereby making all their assets eligible for government confiscation.
It was not a joke.
Here is the take of Keep Talking Greece, whose stunned response mirrors ours.
Cash "under the mattress" totaling more than 15,000 euro, jewelry and other valuable items such as diamonds and gemstones, should be declared to electronic system of tax authorities, Taxisnet, as of 1 January 2016. Next to properties and vehicles and shares, now the taxpayers will also have to declare their deposits. And not only that. They will have to fill if they rent bank lockers and if yes, also the name of the bank and the branch, even if abroad.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-01/greeks-told-declare-cash-under-mattress-jewelry-and-precious-stones

If You Expect to Live Through the Coming Economic Collapse, You Better Read This

 

I am so sorry that I feel compelled to unleash the realities of such a hellish nightmare that is beginning to engulf this country. The United States is in the early stages of an economic meltdown. I apologize to the cognitive dissonance crowd, but your days of ignorant bliss are coming to and end. How can I be so sure?
We live in country that only takes in $2 trillion dollars per year, yet we are looking at the most staggering debt in world history:
1. $18 trillion dollar deficit and that is the good news.
2. $240 trillion dollar unfunded and mandated liabilities (e.g. Medicare and Social Security).
3. $1.5 quadrillion dollar credit swap derivative debt that the bankers have managed to pass along to the people. The interest alone, on the derivatives debt, was $505 trillion dollars last year.
Do you really need a calculator to figure out that we cannot pay off this debt in the 21st century, the 51st century or the 91st century? Some of you will wonder, “Can’t we just start a war and take what we need”? The entire GDP of the planet is only $70 trillion dollars. Subsequently, we cannot even steal enough resources to buy our way out of this debt.
I get emails like the following everyday asking me what they can do to survive what is coming.

Hi Dave,
My name is XXXXX and IT live and work in Phoenix, Arizona. I have been following you, Steve Quayle, the Haggmann’s and Alex Jones for the past several years.  Unfortunately, I am not a man of wealth and neither is that of my family.  I have an okay job at a bank in Scottsdale as a financial analyst but can’t ever seem to put enough funds away to be able to escape from what’s coming.  I really wish I could buy some land up north and just build a bunker.  Any suggestions for those of us specifically in Phoenix on what groups we can join to trade ideas, share, barter and possibly even participate with for bugging out when the time comes? I’m able to cut back on some bills, primarily school loans to contribute to an escape plan or place. I figured you would be the best guy who would know what to do since you’re local and also well prepared and informed.  Help, suggestions and prayers for me are welcome. I look forward to hearing from you.

To this gentleman, I do not think that most people will be able to avoid the dangers that will soon be loosed against us.

The Rampaging Hordes of the Zombie Apocalypse

Who is going to survive is more a matter of luck and Divine Providence, than it is skill and preparation. However, there are definitely some things you can do t0 increase your odds. First, let’s take a brief look at the odds.
According to Statistic Brain there are 12,800,000 Americans on welfare, 46,700,000 on food stamps or SNAP, 5,600,000 on unemployment, with a total government spending on welfare annually of approximately $132 billion and this does not even include food stamps or unemployment. These people comprise the army of the Zombie Apocalypse. These people will be your worst nightmare who will be knocking your door down when the welfare gravy train stops coming,

CAN YOU IMAGINE 50 MILLION AMERICANS RAMPAGING THROUGH THE STREETS LOOKING FOR THEIR NEXT MEAL?

In today’s environment, anyone who discusses the importance of individual preparation and personal responsibility, due to the fact that we live in very troubled times, are often labeled as fear mongers. Upon closer examination, the real fear mongers are the very people who are responsible for perpetuating the present set of crises.

 The Real Fear Mongers

 

Once you get beyond the labels of “conspiracy theorist” and “fear monger” and you realize that you have an obligation to protect your family, there are some simple common sense things that one can do in order to increase their odds of survival following the coming economic collapse. In both 1929 and 2008, there was literally no warning when the economy crashed. The same will hold true for 2015, you will get no warning. In fact, you may choose to look at this article as your first and last warning.

1. The Creation of a Fake-Identity

It may be necessary to become invisible in the event you think you believe that your name could be on a (Red) list because roundups will usually occur in dire situations. Therefore, the creation of a pseudo-identity could become very important.

2. It Takes Money to Prepare

I have committed much effort, time and resources illustrating how a coming economic collapse is unavoidable and how the elite have conspired to steal as many of your assets as possible prior to the collapse. There are some common sense things one can do which could increase the chances of surviving a major societal meltdown resulting from an economic collapse. If you have any doubts as to what is coming, I strongly encourage you to read what I have written about on this topic over the past several months. Ray Charles could see that our economy will not be around much longer in its present form. Your can read these storieshere, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here.
If you have read the articles at the above links, you should have concluded that it is the height of stupidity to leave your life savings in an institution that is planning to steal from you. You need to divert your cash, other than the ability to pay basic bills, in preparation for what is coming.
Getting your money out of the bank has become an art form and you need to be careful.  In a future article, I will be revealing steps you can take in order secure your money from the institutions that are presently holding you hostage.  I cannot promise you that you will be able to retrieve all of your assets. However, I can promise you that if you do not act, you will lose everything and you will lack needed supplies to weather what is coming.
I would strongly suggest that you keep your gas tank filled and you have plenty of cash, food and ammunition on hand. It is better to be safe than sorry.

3. Make a List and Check It Twice

Buy a good prepper book. Holly Deyo is an excellent source for this information (www.standdeyo.com). In the interim, procure your food, water, guns, ammo and home security adjustments.  If you do not have a big dog, consider obtaining a pair. These animals will be your companion, home security system and ally if someone attempts to breach your home with bad intent. Of course, you will have to store dog food as well.
Sit down and construct a list of what you will Make a Listneed after reading a good prepper book.
Make all of you purchases in cash! You do not want to let the wrong people know what you are up to.

4. Rural Vs. Urban

We have to live our lives for today and it may not be possible to move to a rural area because of your job. However, one survivalist that I was speaking with estimates that the rate of survival for a country in economic chaos would be 10 times higher for rural residents as opposed to urban residents. Consider buying a place in an isolated area and commuting to work in the interim.

5. Pay Off Your Mortgage

If you have a CD, a 401k or any other long-term investment, you might want toconsider taking the penalty and executing a withdrawal and apply what’s left of the principal, usually about 50% of the original value, and paying down your major debts.The key word here is “consider”. Because nobody can accurately predict the time frames of these kinds of events, one has to judiciously decide for themselves what is the best course of action.
After an economic collapse, you most likely will not have a job and your retirement and savings will likely be wiped out and confiscated. That is why it would be wise to pay down your debt while you can afford to do so because after the collapse, there will still be foreclosures and repossessions and if you and your family survive, you could be on the street if you cannot pay your bills.

6. Buy Gold and Silver While You Can Afford It

Goldman Sachs has been shorting gold. The elite have been hording gold as have the BRICS. These entities are telling you, by action, what medium of exchange is going to be of value following the collapse that is coming.
 Storing gold and silver is an economic survival strategy which will pay dividends after the smoke begins to clear in the post-collapse era.

 

7. Practice Austerity Before Austerity Is Imposed On You

It is critical to immediately eliminate all unnecessary expenses. Give yourself some operating capital. You may be able to purchase a bug-out residence in a rural area. You will certainly be able to afford more survival gear.
In order to increase your immediate cash flow, start an at-home business. Start a business which has virtually no upfront and startup costs.  Even if you are not able to generate much income, you will create a legal tax evasion strategy in which you can legally deduct many of your present activities and expenses (e.g. mileage, the purchase of any office supply, etc.) including survival gear.

8. Create and Store Your Own Food

With regard to storing food, you need to do so immediately. I recommend storing two years worth of food. However, you need to master the art of growing food inside your home. There are plenty of resources which can teach you how to do that. However, you would be wise if you would create a hiding place in which you can store food and water safely in a hidden location.  If you are ever robbed, you will not have exhausted your food supplies.  You are most likely to be robbed by FEMA or one of their mercenary groups (e.g. Academia) during the beginning of the crisis because food and water will be used as weapons to control you. I am personally aware of FEMA going to selected homeowners in order to track a family’s reserve food and water supplies. Remember, water is sunlight and temperature sensitive. There are plenty of prepper manuals that you can consult for instructions on how to meet these needs.
The biggest threat to survival is death due to dehydration and starving to death.  Contaminated water will also pose a threat. There are plenty of places to purchase large drums and obtain water tablets for water purification purposes.  Obtain a pair of water filters in case you have to go mobile to survive.
Finally, learn to grow your own food within your residence. Your garden will likely be raided by humans and hungry animals alike. There are plenty of prepper manuals which can teach you how to accomplish this task.

9. Personal Supplies

Of course you will need toothpaste, toiletries, eating utensils, etc. For a complete list of personal items see Steve Quayles list on his website.

10. Stockpile Medicines and Medical Supplies

 If you or your family has a chronic health condition, it is critical that you have 6 months to a year in medicine. Also, you should research natural alternatives to treatment for health conditions in case you are not able to meet this goal due to the inability to obtain prescriptions. Don’t forget to obtain some pain medication and antibiotics in case of unforeseen emergencies.  Make a trip to Mexico and sneak across medication in old pill bottles in order to escape detection by the Border Patrol who will ask you if you obtained medication in Mexico when you come back across the border.
If you can safely ration your existing medication doses, do so and store the excesses. Make sure you also have a first aid kit. Take a First Aid class including CPR at your local fire station. Do not forget your hygiene supplies.
Some are thinking that this is a lot of work. My response would be, how bad do you want you and your family to survive?

11. Guns and Ammunition

Regardless of your moral convictions, ask yourself if you want your family to survive.
Buy your guns off the books from private parties and at gun shows. “Keep guns for show and guns for go”. In other words, have a safe location that you can bury guns so that when gun confiscation begins, you will not be left totally defenseless.
America needs to not only create safe and secure homes, but to create as many Warsaw ghettos as possible (look it up). We need to make ourselves a hard country to conquer and occupy. We cannot stop a treasonous leader from handing off the country to some foreign entity (e.g. the UN). However, occupation of America should be problematic for the blue-helmet wearing Russians, Chinese and other proxy forces training on our soil to occupy us.
It is recommended that you have 3 types of weapons: (1) pistols for close in fighting; (2) shotguns for defense of the entrance to your home; and, (3) a rifle with a scope in order to fight back against long-range snipers that do not want to storm your home because you appear to be prepared. Immediately, obtain weapons instruction for you and your family, firearms training and then practice!  Conduct mock raids on your residence so that you can see your vulnerabilities. An armed populace makes a people more feared by an abusive government. If I had not gun training at all, I would opt for a shotgun with regard to home defense.
Do not forget about gas masks for each member of your family and make sure to store extras. If you have the means to obtain body armor, do so now, because Congress is preparing to outlaw the private use of body armor.

 12. Obtain Night Vision Equipment

If your family is located in a fixed location, the challenges of defending your property go up exponentially at night because you cannot see where the threat is coming from. Night vision equipment is not cheap, but your family is literally defenseless without it after the sun goes down.

13. Prepare to Survive in the Raw Elements and Build a New Culture for Your Family

It is possible that you can learn to survive in the raw elements without heating and central air conditioning. You may not have lights. Obtain flashlights, many batteries and a hand crank radio. Make sure you have clothes befitting all weather that you may encounter because a crisis that begins in January, may not be over by August.
Take a weekend and pretend the grid is down. This will allow you to see firsthand what supplies you will need. When should you perform this drill? There is no time like the present. Also, take a camping weekend where you simulate having to “bug out”.
To people with generators, congratulations on your foresight. However, if you are the only house on the block with lights, how long do you think it will be until you have unwanted visitors with bad intent?
Don’t forget about procuring non-electronic forms of entertainment. This should include board games and educational materials for your children. You will want to establish some normalcy for the sake of your children. You are preparing to adopt a new way of life. Make the new life worth living.
I would also recommend that every personal library contain The Constitution of the United States. After the chaos subsides, we will need to rebuild. You will not want to live in a “might makes right” society.

14.  Prepare Yourself Physically

If you are on the run, you may have to travel up to 20 miles per day. Get in shape, begin to walk, jog or run. The better shape you are in, the better.
Take self-defense classes. Many of these classes are offered free of charge at churches and community centers.
Practice shooting on a regular basis. If you can afford it, take gun safety and shooting lessons.

15. Do Not Tell Anyone

If your four adjacent neighbors broach the topic of preparedness, gauge the situation and then make an informed decision. If your neighbors are on board with preparing, that will help you form a defensive perimeter and a mutual alliance pact. Otherwise, tell nobody of your preparation plans. Do not tell your friends, family members, and co-workers. Make your preparations in cash or cashier’s checks as much as possible. Limit the paper trail to you. You do not want the government to know that you are prepared because you could be the first one on your block that is visited at 3AM. You and your mate should prepare in stealth. Kids talk and so do their friends.
Once you have your allies established, begin to trade and barter because the existing system may not be available for much longer.

16.  You Need to Become the Neighborhood Nut Because There is Safety In Numbers

 Never offer what you are doing to prepare or how far along you are with your preparations. However, you will need allies because you cannot guard your property 24/7/365.  So, how do  you recruit neighbors to become your allies without telling them what you are up to? Simple, with each neighbor that is convinced and understands what is at stake, you should feign ignorance and act as if you and your neighbor are learning prepping together. Teach your awake neighbor how to prepare. You will need allies to help protect your family and resources and it is not likely that you can do this alone.

17.  PREPARE YOURSELF SPIRITUALLY AND BE SURE TO PRAY!

Survival is never guaranteed, salvation is! And do not forget one of your most important resources, your Bible.

Conclusion

There is a time to stop talking and to start doing. That time would be now. The economy is going to collapse, the only question is when. Of course if fail to prepare, this administration will be all to happy to lend you a helping hand.

On March 27, under the auspices of DHS, Special Operations forces practiced political dissident extraction drills in Ft. Lauderdale, FL. I took this as a personal declaration of war against the American people. This image should motivate you to prepare.

May good fortune and God’s blessings follow all with regard to what is coming. Please prepare while you still have time.

 

The Economic Doomsday Clock Is Closer To Midnight

Prisoner’s Dilemma describes when two purely rational entities may not cooperate even if it is in their best interests to do so, thereby replacing known risks for unknown risks. In an arms race when two superpowers possess the ability to destroy each other, the optimal solution is disarmament and peace. If the superpowers do not trust one another completely, the natural course of action is proliferation of conflict through nuclear armament despite great peril to all. This non-cooperation, selfishness, and conflict, ironically results in an equilibrium of peace, but with massive risk.
Global central banks are engaged in an arms race of devaluation resulting in suboptimal outcomes for all parties and greater systemic risk.  In this year alone 49 central banks have cut rates or devalued their currencies to gain a competitive edge and since 2008 there have been over 600 rate cuts worldwide. Globally we have printed over 14 trillion dollars since the end of the financial crisis.  The global economy did not de-leverage from the 2008 crash but instead doubled down as global debt has increased a staggering 40% since 2007. The pace of global growth is slowing with the World Bank lowering GDP projections from 3% to 2.5%, and emerging economies from China to Brazil are struggling. Global currency reserves outside the US have declined over $1 trillion USD from their peak in August 2014 as foreign central banks have sold dollars to offset the ill effects of capital flight and commodity declines.
The last time the world economy experienced declines in reserves of this magnitude was right before the crash of 2008. Cross-asset volatility is rising from the lowest levels in three decades yet markets remain complacent with the expectation that central banks will always support asset prices.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-15/economic-doomsday-clock-closer-midnight

America’s cities will collapse into utter chaos the day the EBT cards stop working

It will certainly be “the day the music died“… and perhaps millions of Americans as well. What day is that? The day that all electronic cash transactions cease to function. The hardest hit will be Americans on the lowest rungs of the economic ladder – families who exist on government-subsidized food programs. As reported recently by All News Pipeline, recent outages in the processing of Electronic Benefits Transfer (EBT) cards – financial transaction instruments that operate like bank debit cards – have caused concern among society watchers who are rightly convinced that any long-term disruption in service will inevitably lead to massive unrest and the breakdown of civil society, especially in urban centers.
Is this the very scenario that was seen by David Wilkerson in a vision many years ago, in which he saw the following? “For ten years I have been warning about a thousand fires coming to New York City. It will engulf the whole megaplex, including areas of New Jersey and Connecticut. Major cities all across America will experience riots and blazing fires—such as we saw in Watts, Los Angeles, years ago.” “There will be riots and fires in cities worldwide. There will be looting—including Times Square, New York City. What we are experiencing now is not a recession, not even a depression. We are under God’s wrath.”  
As noted by Tom Chatham of Project Chesapeake, more than 50 percent of Americans currently receive some form of government payment, whether it is in the form of a welfare benefit, government pension or military pay. In a widespread electronic outage scenario, those payments would become impossible to process, leaving tens of millions of Americans unable to purchase basic goods and services. At the same time, legacy government benefit programs such as Social Security and Medicare are running out of funds; soon, both will be running annual deficits. This is in addition to the fact that the federal government is more than $18 trillion in debt and owes some $97 trillion in currently unfunded liability payments. CONTINUE 

Deflation Warning: The Next Wave

The signs of deflation are now flashing all over the globe. In our estimation, the possibility of an associated financial crisis is now dangerously high over the next few months.
As we’ve been saying for a while, our preferred model for how things are going to unfold follows the Ka-Poom! Theory as put out by Erik Janszen of iTulip.com.
That theory states that this epic debt bubble will ultimately burst first by deflation (the "Ka!") before then exploding (the "Poom!") in hyperinflation due to additional massive money printing efforts by frightened global central bankers acting in unison.
First an inwards collapse, then an outwards explosion. Ka-Poom!
We’ve been tracking the deflationary impulse for a while, and declared deflation the winner back in July of this year.

A Failed Strategy

What exactly do we mean by deflation?  Back in 2008 the central banks of the developed world, as well as China, had a choice:

1. admit that prior policies geared towards encouraging borrowing at a faster rate than income growth were a horrible idea, or
2. double down and push those failed policies even harder

As we all know, they chose option #2. And so here we are, just 8 years later, with nearly $60 trillion in new debt piled on top of the prior mountain -- while GDP grew by only $12 trillion over the same time period:

(Source)

[Note:  Global nominal GDP is projected to be $68.6 trillion in 2015, virtually unchanged from 2013]
In other words, instead of saying to ourselves: Hmmm.... it was probably a terrible idea to pile up debt at 2x the rate of income growth, what the world did instead was to double down on that terrible idea and pile on more debt at 5x the rate(!) of nominal GDP growth.
Talk about not learning from your past mistakes....
At any rate, what all of that money printing, lower interest rates and new debt creation did was force capital over the globe to look for some place to go. Absent any really good and creative ideas, that money primarily chased yield. It piled into risk assets like stocks and junk bonds, often in bubble-like fashion (meaning, in haste), and without proper due diligence.
The only way the central bank “strategy” (and we use that word very loosely) could have worked was if very rapid economic growth emerged to justify the accumulated levels of debt, comprised of both old and new borrowing. Central banks were indeed hoping such growth would materialize and lesson the burden of servicing the interest on all that debt.
But that growth, quite predictably (as forecasted by us among many others), did not emerge.
Perhaps Japan’s experience should have tipped the central bankers off as to why not.  For several decades now, Japan has served as a warning: too much debt is the malady, not the cure.
So here we are.  What are we to make of it all?  It's our view that the financial markets are important to monitor because they will signal to us when sentiment has shifted, and let us know in advance that events will unfold at a faster pace.
Judging from the market action over the past month, we think that shift has happened. And we're increasingly concerned that this next ‘correction’ could be pretty rough for a lot of folks.

Bright Red Warning Lights

The global economy is downshifting fast, and there are lots of flashing red warning lights indicating as much.
Doug Noland has captured the emerging market pain caused by the hot money that is now flooding out of those territories, as well as provided a great explanation of the bubble dynamics in play:

The Federal Reserve is flailing and global currency markets are in disarray. Notably, the Brazilian real dropped more than 10% in five sessions, before Thursday’s sharp recovery reversed much of the week’s loss. This week the Colombian peso dropped 3.0%, and the Chilean peso fell 3.1%. The Mexican peso dropped 1.9%.

The Malaysian ringgit sank 4.5% for the week, with the South Korean won down 2.7% and the Indonesia rupiah losing 2.2%. The Singapore dollar fell 1.8%. The South African rand sank 4.4% and the Turkish lira fell 1.4%.

Notably, market dislocation was not limited to EM. The Norwegian krone was hit for 4.4%, and the Swedish krona lost 2.0%. The British pound declined 2.3%. The Australian dollar also lost 2.3%.

The global Bubble is bursting – hence financial conditions are tightening. Bubbles never provide a convenient time to tighten monetary policy. Best practices would require central bankers to tighten early before Bubble Dynamics take firm hold. Central bankers instead nurture and accommodate Bubble excess. It ensures a policy dead end.

As the unfolding EM crisis gathered further momentum this week, the transmission mechanism to the U.S. has begun to clearly show itself. While “full retreat” may be a little too strong at this point, the global leveraged speculating community is backpedaling. Biotech stocks suffered double-digit losses this week, as a significant Bubble deflates in earnest. It’s also worth noting that the broader market underperformed.
(Source)

What does it mean when we see currencies in retreat across the globe?  It means that the hot, speculator money is rushing out of weaker economies and back towards the stronger center.  This is consistent with a liquidity crisis, one where all the borrowed money used to spark all those heady asset gains and falling yields on the way out do the exact opposite on the way back.
And Doug is exactly right – there’s never a good time to pop a bubble.  So the central bankers just sit, paralyzed, afraid to even raise rates by a token amount for fear that the daisy-chain of global bubbles will burst as a result. They needn’t fear: the bubbles will burst no matter what the Fed, et al., does.
A credit default swap (CDS) is a bit of insurance you can buy if you own a bond and are worried that the issuer may default on it.  In a stable climate, the cost of that insurance (measured in percentage points above the stated yield on that debt) is pretty flat. It's usually close to the yield of the bond in question.
So you might have to pay 1% to 2% (i.e. 100 to 200 basis points) above the yield on, say a Brazilian ten year bond, to insure it against a default.  As things begin to break down and become less certain, that cost will rise.
Now take a look at this chart of recent emerging market CDS 'spreads':

(Source)

See those CDS ‘spreads’ blowing out to the upside? That’s the sort of thing I was tracking in 2008 that gave me a clear, early warning that things were about to fall apart.  While these levels are not (yet) flashing the same level of danger that we are seeing in the CDS paper for Glencore (which is almost certain to go bankrupt now), or for US shale drillers (tons of bankruptcies coming there, too), these are pretty serious warning signs to see in sovereign debt.
Why would the sovereign debt of Russia, Turkey, Brazil, and Malaysia be spiking right now?  Because the hot money is flooding out of those countries. There's now an elevated risk that they may default on their bonds in the future.
These emerging market countries are being squeezed from every direction. But the worst pain is being experience by those that borrowed heavily in dollars (or other stable currencies).  From the WSJ (Sept 29), we see the magnitude of the predicament for companies located in EM nations:

Developing-country firms quadrupled their borrowing from around $4 trillion in 2004 to well over $18 trillion last year, with China accounting for a major share.
Now, prospects in industrializing economies are weakening fast even as the U.S. Federal Reserve is getting set to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, a move that will raise borrowing costs around the world.

The burden of 26% larger average corporate debt ratios and higher interest rates come as commodity prices plummet, a staple export for many emerging-market economies.

Compounding problems, many firms borrowed heavily in dollars. As the greenback surges against the value of local currency revenues, it makes repaying those loans increasingly difficult.
(Source)

So the afflicted countries are going to see vastly weaker exports, plunging currencies, and their local corporations unable to pay off dollar-denominated loans -- on borrowing that ballooned from $4 trillion in 2004 to over $18 trillion just 11 years later.  It’s an amazing statistic, one of many fostered by a cluster of central banks that know everything about blowing bubbles but nothing about ending them.
The punch line from the above article is this: “That massive debt build-up means it is “vital” for authorities to be increasingly vigilant, especially to threats to systemically important companies and the firms they have links to, including banks and other financial firms, the IMF said.”
Decoded, that means that $18 trillion is a big number. If even a small portion of that goes into default, it could easily drag down whole swaths of the developed world’s financial corporate structure.  A systemic crisis that would begin on the edge but rapidly spread to the center.
Well, based on the DDBAX ETF which holds bonds priced in local currencies, we can get a sense of the pain those EM companies are feeling which have dollar denominated loans, but conduct business in their local currency:

Ouch!  Based on the above chart, the past year has been painful indeed for those emerging market corporations and governments. No sign of a bottom yet either.

Not So Fast There….

One so-called ‘bright spot’ in the world economy is the US, which supposedly is doing better than everyone else.  As you know, I consider US GDP statistics to be nearly useless because of all the statistical tricks and gimmicks that are now deployed (such as now counting ‘intangibles’ to go along with Owner Occupied Rent which records the price value of people not paying themselves rent, etc.,) to make things look better than they are.
So I’m having trouble believing that the US economy is doing well when our major trading partner to the south is struggling so much due to a huge drop drop in exports:

Mexico factory exports slump by most in over 6-1/2 years in Aug
Sept 25, 2015

(Reuters) - Mexico's factory-made exports slumped in August by the most in more than 6-1/2 years after uneven growth in the first half of 2015, data showed on Friday, while consumer imports rose.

Manufactured exports sank 7.2 percent in August compared with July, falling back after two months of gains, the national statistics agency said in a statement. It was the biggest month-on-month drop since December 2008, data showed.

Mexico exports mostly manufactured goods like cars and televisions and about three-quarters are sent to the United States.
(Source)

It’s hard to imagine that the US economy is doing fine when a major trading partner who exports 75% of its finished product to the US is experiencing a deep export slump.
But it’s not just Mexico that's seeing a big decline in export activity:

For the first seven months of 2015, U.S. exports dropped 5.6% to $895.7 billion. The value of South Korean exports shrank a revised 14.9% in August from a year earlier, the sharpest fall in six years, as shipments to China dropped. Chinese imports in August fell 13.8% in dollar terms from a year earlier, after an 8.1% decrease in July.
(Source – WSJ)

If this keeps up, 2015 will see the worst global trade performance since…wait for it…2008.  For the US, 2015 will be the first year that exports have declined since the financial crisis.  Ditto for a number of other countries.
Beyond exports, the surveys of US manufacturing and service sector activity are also flashing recession warning signs.  In fact, the manufacturing survey has only been this low in the past during prior recessions. Maybe this time is different?

(Source)

On the plus side for the US: reasonably robust housing activity, low initial claims for unemployment, and growing income and expenditures. But the data for some of these is suspect (nearly 100 million working-age adults are not counted in the workforce), and in other areas, not robust enough to hang too many hopes on.
Add it all up, and there are a number of signs that not only is the US economy is far from robust, it may even be teetering on the verge of a recession. But the global economic landscape is decidedly tilted towards contraction, not expansion.
Why is all this important?  Because seeing these signs early enough gives us a better chance to mentally, financially, and physically prepare for the next shock.  The press does a very good job of constantly painting everything in a rosy light, and that’s fine, but it’s not very helpful if it also misleads.
Lots of people are woefully unprepared for what’s coming next. For many it will be a shock.  Not because they couldn’t see it coming years in advance and made their own mental and financial adjustments on their own terms, but because they wouldn’t.  Preferring to avoid an unpleasant truth they put it out of sight and out of mind, hoping that somehow things would work out in their favor.
In Part 2: From Deflation To Hyperinflation, we detail out the likeliest progression of the unfolding deflationary rout and the inevitable tsunami of money printing that the central banks will respond with, unleashing the final hyperinflationary chapter.

Epocalypse Soon: The Great Economic Collapse Is Happening

I use the term “epocalypse” to name the last days of the global economy as we know it — a global economic collapse of biblical proportion. It iseconomic,epochal, an apocalypse that will change the world and a collapse … all in one word that sounds the right size for what I’m talking about. Call it the “Great Collapse” or the “Epocalypse.” Whatever you call it, it’s about to change the world.
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I am referring to an economic crisis so big that the global economy will be forever different after those days. This economic collapse has already begun throughout the world, but I am holding off on using the title “Epocalypse Now” until the US stock market joins the crash. That’s the point at which we’re all in (i.e., at a level where everyone knows it and denial that it is happening falls apart). I anticipate making that call in a matter of days now. Here is where we stand at present:

Economic collapse is already global

Open your eyes to a wider scope than just the US stock market, and it’s as if a fog lifts all around you to reveal a war-ravaged landscape. It may not be like the landscape described in the New Testament book, The Apocalypse (The Revelation), but it’s moving in that kind of direction. Let me describe what is already unfolding in case you haven’t caught the big picture.
Financial advice and preparedness

• The energy crash is certain to worsen. The news last week that OPEC is not going to lower output, makes it clear that OPEC is in the energy price war for the duration. Driven by the Saudis, OPEC nations will assure oversupply until they see several major oil companies in the US collapse. To lower output now and raise oil prices would be to have suffered a year of pain for absolutely nothing. OPEC is committed to breaking the US fracking industry, and it’s doing a pretty good job of it. That means energy stocks and oil prices are down for the long term. The price of oil now matches its lowest point in the Great Recession.

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• All commodity prices are collapsing, and the situation is clearly going to worsen and stay bad for a long time. China’s demand for natural resources is not coming back for many years, as its slowdown was intentional, albeit apparently out of control. Because of its slowdown, China became a net seller of materials this year, versus a net buyer. This has become huge bad news for companies all over the world in the natural-resources industry. China is now playing a similar role in all natural resources to that played by OPEC is oil. China has huge overcapacity now in its product of refined materials, but it is cheaper to run some businesses at a loss than to shut them down due to fixed expenses, liabilities, etc. These businesses are underpricing their global competitors, hoping to shut them down so that Chinese businesses can survive in a market of reduced demand. This is crushing major US companies like Alcoa, which has closed down smelters because it cannot compete against the lower price of Chinese aluminum. Copper, to give another example is down 37% from its last high in June of 2014. All of this is a longterm change in the commodities market that is affecting the entire natural-resources industry. The Bloomberg Commodities Index has hit its lowest level in sales of all commodities valued in dollars since 1999. The global overcapacity in steel production alone is estimated at 700,000,000 tons a year. China is exporting deflation all over the world.
•  
• Globally, twenty-seven stock markets are now in correction (a decline of 10% or more) with thirteen of those being bear markets (a decline of 20% or more). Several markets have fallen more than 30%. Trillions of dollars have evaporated around the world. These all-out crashes can be found in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and South America. They are, in other words, global in extent and include such major economies as the United Kingdom, Germany, China, Canada, Australia and India — not just the usual trouble spots. The last time we saw such widespread stock-market damage was in 2008 in the first part of the Great Recession. So, it is no overstatement to say we already have a global stock market crash. If you’re in the United States, you might not be feeling the epocalypse yet; but the rest of the world is; and once the US is in, things will become even worse for the rest of the world, which in turn will make things worse for the US.

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• Economic collapse is everywhere; several economies have seen recession this year. Japan, Canada, Australia, Russia, Ukraine, Brazil and Greece are just some of the nations that have officially been in recession during 2015.  Japan, of course, has revised its numbers to claim it is not really in recession. Whatever. If you’re that close that you can’t figure it out, you might as well be considered in. For Japan this makes five recessions in seven years. Global GDP — the sum of all national GDPs — has been falling for a year. The only other time in the past half century that has seen any drop in global GDP was 2008, during which it fell the same amount that it has fallen this year. As recessions are measured by drops in GDP, this means the globe overall is in recession.
• Global economic trade has been collapsing all year. It is down 8.4%, and the rate of decline is getting steeper. The Baltic Dry Index, which monitors shipping costs, has dropped from 809 to 628 in just one month. Container costs go down as demand goes down, and shippers compete more fiercely for fewer customers. The China Containerized Freight Index has hit a record low, falling 31% for the year. German exports were down 18% for the year; US exports, down 10%. Shipping giant Maersk says that shipping indicates the global economy is actually doing worse than most economic projections indicate.

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• Europe is trying to absorb millions of impoverished refugees. Already teetering on recession, Europe averages an unemployment rate of 10%. I have to wonder why European leaders think Europe actually has the financial capacity to absorb millions of jobless refugees. Who is going to support them? Millions of jobless Europeans? The situation has the makings of social calamity, even without the huge cultural divide between the refugees and Europeans and even aside from the risk that such rapid immigration makes it easier for terrorists to slip in among the immigrants. Europe’s leaders are completely unrealistic about Europe’s capacity to absorb the refuge crisis.
• Islamic terrorism is not going away. Forty-nine nations that are predominantly Islamic want to see the entire globe ruled by Sharia. Many of them are directly funding terrorists. ISIS is expanding its recruitment within nations all over the world, claiming now is the time for Muslims everywhere to rise up in battle within their own nations. Its efforts are sophisticated and inspirational, such as this new song in Mandarin in China (lyric translation). This epic battle creates a high security cost to the economies of all Western nations at a time when they are already weak … and ISIS knows this. Their philosophy is to strike the giant while he is ailing in order to bring him down for good.

A Self Sustaining Source Of Fresh Meat,Vegetables And Clean Drinking Water
The ISIS Apocalypse: The History, Strategy, and Doomsday Vision of the Islamic State

Economic collapse developing in the US

• Junk bond interest is skyrocketing as the high-yield bond market begins to collapse. The US collapse into the Great Recession was led by junk bonds. Obviously, as junk bonds become riskier, the amount offered in interest to attract financiers rises. So, skyrocketing interest equates to a perception of skyrocketing risk. Junk bond interest this year has taken on that distinct “hockey stick” shape, reaching its highest level in five years. That rise is across the board, not just in industries where it would be expected, such as financing in the energy industry. Those who already hold high-yield bonds are seeing their first annual loss since 2008 as they seek to dump bonds that have a growing risk of default. Risky bonds usually average about one-and-a-half times the yield of safer bonds. They now average four times the yield in order to find buyers. This the start of a bond market sell-off. UBS, the largest bank in Switzerland, reported recently that over a trillion dollars of junk bond issuers are having troubles refinancing. This adds up to a likelihood of large defaults in corporate junk bonds like the defaults that created the Great Recession. Junk-bond crashes also have a longstanding reputation of foreshadowing stock-market crashes. The potential Fed rate hike is exacerbating the rise in interest.
• The US Dept. of Agriculture has forecast that farm incomes will decline 38% this year. Not dire for everyone, but it calls to mind years of the Great Depression when farmers struggled against droughtduring a time of economic collapse, and it does add more downward pressure on some parts of the economy, including major corporations like John Deere. Poor farmers don’t buy expensive equipment if they can avoid it. They also don’t buy cars and trucks and a lot of other things. It all adds to the impact that the oil crash is having on the midwest.
• Major retailers are in decline. Target, Macy’s, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Walmart, Best Buy, Nordstrom, Kohl’s, Tiffany are all experiencing trouble. Sales are dropping so that inventories are backing up. The Wall Street Journal just published a story titled “Retailers Ring Alarm Bells for the Holiday Season,” which describes the decline as “shockingly bad.” This is not due entirely to customers switching from brick-and-mortar stores to online purchases. Bank of America reports that credit-card purchases, which happen equally in both physical stores and online stores, took their first holiday-season decline (year-on-year) since the official years of the Great Recession. Part of the decline, they say, but not all of it,was due to the drop in fuel prices, also purchased with credit cards; but part of it is due to retail.

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• Auto loans and student loans are a leaning tower of debt. Auto sales have peaked only as a result of a huge extension of looser, loser credit where loan terms are now up to seven years long, and interest is low or non-existent as are down payments. The last time we saw such desperate financing measures in the auto industry was just before the Great Recession, and we all know what happened to the auto industry then. We also know what happened to the housing industry when it peaked because of looser credit. We’ve learned nothing and have repeated the problem … on steroids.
• The US manufacturing sector is already in recession. When the index run by the Institute for Supply Management (the ISM index) falls below a reading of 50, it means US manufacturing is in contraction. Last month, it finally caved in to a level of  48.59. This is not a fluke. The index has been in steady decline since this past June. 65% of the time when the ISM index has gone below 50, the US economy has gone into recession. The 35% of the times when it did NOT go into recession were times that had nowhere near the downward economic pressures that the present time already has. The direction the ISM index moves has been a nearly perfect predictor of the direction US gross domestic product moves, and GDP is the measure by which economists determine if an economy is in expansion (growth) or contraction (recession). The last time the ISM index hit this level was during the pit of the Great Recession in 2009.
• Dow Theory is waving a bright-red flag. Shipping companies, railroads and trucking companies are all in serious decline, as is Cummins, the maker of diesel engines, as is the sale of new trucks, new rail cars and new ships … because products and resources are not moving nearly as fast as they were. Sales are down. Stocks are down. The Port of Los Angeles reports a 15% decline in container shipping volume this year. Both imports and exports are down. Orders of large trucks are down 44% year-on-year. Railcar orders plunged 83% year-over-year in the third quarter, the largest decline in almost thirty years! Year-to-date, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has gone from a value of 9,200 to 7,800, a 15% drop.  The Dow JonesIndustrial Average, on the other hand, has lost less than half a percent for the year. According to Dow Theory, a healthy stock market with a good future sees both the Industrial Average and the Transportation Average going up together. When they diverge (especially this dramatically) trouble is afoot. The theory is based on the idea that when manufacturers are doing well, they produce more, AND they ship more. Transportation stocks are seen as the leading indicator. If shipping is slowing, demand is slowing, and so manufacturing will have to slow down, too, as inventories start to pile up. Exactly what we’ve been seeing all year. Since transportation stocks have dropped 15% overall, Dow Theory suggests that manufacturing has a similar or even greater decline waiting for it, as manufacturing slows to match plunging demand and rid itself of existing overstock.
• Hedge funds are tanking. Money managers who made big names for themselves are failing. They have been failing all year. Some have been failing for a few years now, and their problems are only getting worse. Why is it that the nation’s top stock pickers can no longer pick winning stocks to save their souls? Could it be that the stock market no longer works as a market for buying and selling interest in corporations but is purely a casino so that traditional fund managers no longer know how the game operates? Do you even wonder? When those with reputations of great economic success fail spectacularly and in fairly large numbers, can economic collapse be far behind?

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• The US stock market now rides on only ten stocks. Right now the US stock market is the best looking horse at the glue factory, so a whopping ten of its stocks are still fetching enough bids to keep the entire US stock average above water. Most of the US stock market is already in recession. When support in the market narrows down to only a handful of stocks that are going up in value enough to keep the market’s average up, that leaning out is nearly always the dying breath of a bull market. It means investors are finding very few stocks they have confidence in and are crowding into those few remaining shares like rats running to the highest point of a sinking ship.
• Corporate sales have been down every quarter of 2015, and stock buybacks have been the market’s main support to share prices. Stock values have not risen due to sales but due to companies using cheap interest loans (as a result of the Federal Reserve’s policies) to buy back their own shares, creating their own demand in the stock market. The last time we saw such an incestuous frenzy of buybacks as we did in 2015 was in 2007. We all know what happened right after that. With no reason for sales to go up and with interest rates likely going up, buybacks will end, so stock prices will fall. Any companies that have to refinance their debt will have to do so at higher interest at a time of declining sales, exacerbating their decline.
• The Fed will raise interest rates in December. The gauges for jobs that the Federal Reserve pays the closest attention to when deciding on interest targets came in so strong last month that the Federal Reserve would be hard-pressed to find another reason to keep interest down. While Permabear Peter Schiff has predicted repeatedly that the Fed will not raise rates and will go straight into a fourth round of quantitative easing, I have strongly disagreed throughout the year, maintaining that the Fed is blind and, so, it will raise rates because it looks at a very limited array of gauges and will not see the economic demise that is happening all around it any better this time than it did when Ben Bernanke declared in 2008 that the Fed saw no hint of a recession in sight, even as it turned out he was already standing in the middle of one!
• China’s yuan is now a global reserve currency. That threatens the supremacy of the US dollar as a reserve currency. China, once the United States major financier of national debt has divested from US treasuries. So, has Russia, once the second-largest financier of US debt. Longterm, this indicates higher interest rates on US debt as major buyers have already moved away and more may move away now that China’s yuan represents an option for storing sovereign treasure. With the national debt now four times higher than the mountain of debt that existed before the Great Recession, this could be calamitous.

That’s the large picture. When you see large blocks of it all at once like that, you get more of a sense of the scale of economic collapse that is coming. Note that none of the enormous pressures above appear likely to reverse anytime soon.

My conclusions about global economic collapse in 2015

Major hedge funds collapsing, only ten stocks carrying the whole stock market, junk bonds failing rapidly, commodities crashing spectacularly and for the long term. Are these not the four horsemen of an economic apocalypse? Is that the company you really want to ride with. If not, get out!
The US stock market is teetering on collapse just as the Fed is ready to raise interest — the perfect timing I have predicted all along for Fed foolishness. The perfect storm. As a reader of this blog, you have the advantage of knowing what the Fed will do, when it will do it, and how oblivious it will be to understanding that it is crashing its own false economy. You can’t do anything to stop the Fed’s childish ignorance. You can only watch it unfold from as safe a seat as you can find. So, find it quickly.

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Clearly, 2015 is a year when things fall apart as a result of the end of quantitative easing at the end of 2014. The year has unfolded just as I said it would. If you’ve been around this site for awhile, you know I said that the big stock market plunge in September-October of 2014 marked the end of the bull market. Hindsight now verifies that the US stock market has bounced hectically sideways along an obvious ceiling ever since. The slope of the bull is long gone.
Why should it have been obvious that 2015 would go this way? Anyone understanding economic fundamentals can see that the “recovery” is a mirage created by TRILLIONS of dollars of free money — a mirage that would, therefore, fall apart when the free money stopped that was sustaining it becausenothing has been done to establish an economy built on anything other than endless mountains debt as its foundation, which was the cause of the initial economic collapse that we called “The Great Recession.”
Almost-free money continues under the Fed’s low-interest program. So, when the Fed raises interest next week — a nearly certain likelihood — the remainder of support to the bubblistic, mirage economy falls away. The false recovery vanishes as soon as the wizard’s magic ends. I have said for years now that the illusory recovery is completely unsustainable because our only solution to the Great Recession has been to prop up the old dying regime as long as we could to milk it for all its worth.
When the government reacted to the Great Recession many years ago, I used the metaphor of a snow plow, which is supposed to push the snow off to the side, not straight ahead. I pointed out that, if you push the snow straight ahead, it piles up until the snow plow is no longer able to push it. That, I have said all along is all we are doing — just pushing our mountains of debt higher and higher ahead of ourselves as our sole answer. (“Kicking the can down the road,” as congress often said (and did).) 2015 is the year the snow plows lost traction. That’s all you’ve heard all year is the screech of spinning tires. The end of 2015 is the time the epocalypse begins — a great economic collapse that will ultimately lead to global economic transformation because a global crisis will seem to demand global solutions.
What is truly needed is freedom from the addiction to and bondage of debt along with justice brought against colossal greed, instead of bailouts. That is one global answer that would work — a biblical “Year of Jubilee,” in which all debts are dissolved everywhere in the world — a global reboot that ends the tyranny of the 1%.
That would be a move for justice against the stockpilers of greed. You’d lose much of your retirement fund, but you’d also lose your mortgage and all other debts; and you’re likely to lose much of your retirement fund in the days ahead anyway, unless you move your money to cash, and even that has some peril. A “Year of Jubilee” would reset the whole playing field on a level plane.
It won’t happen.
Instead, we’ll see global answers that keep the majority of the world indebted to the minority and that consolidate the power of those already in power. You’ll see a loss of human freedoms in the face of anarchy and terrorism. Today’s people will readily give up their freedom in exchange for a sense of security. Gone are the days when brave souls gave up their own lives to assure human freedoms for others. Here are the days in which people will give up their own freedoms in order to assure their own lives.
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That, however, is writing for another time. It is too soon right now to say such things, as people have not seen the epocaplyse that will change the world. Therefore, it seems too dismal by present measures to imagine such surrender of freedom is possible, much less likely. Nevertheless, that is the trend I see, but the first measure of the accuracy of that insight will be whether the epocaplyse comes this year, as I have maintained all year long it will. If I’m wrong, I’ll go away, as the world does not need dismal people, but one is not dismal if he is simply right. In that case, he cannot help that the truth doesn’t look good. Better to see it for what is than to be blindsided by ti.
The epocalypse has already begun in most of the world. Look for it to materialize clearly next week as the Fed raises interest. In fact, look for it to materialize even if the Fed does NOT raise interest. The Fed is damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t. Their magic has ended. Because the entire market is now anticipating the Fed will raise interest, based on the Fed’s own telegraphed messages, the Fed will send shock waves through the market if it does not follow through. If the Fed cannot raise interest even when all of its job gauges are where it said it wants them, that would say to many people that the Fed doesn’t believe in its own recovery either.
I am certain, however, that the Fed does believe in its false recovery, and am confident it will end its stimulus with the worst possible timing. That’s why I’ve predicted unflinchingly that the US stock market will crash this fall. The global economic collapse that I also predicted for this year, is clearly already happening; but for US citizens, it will take a stock-market crash to convince them that the end is here.
While JP Morgan and Citi were finally smart enough last week to put the likelihood of a recession at 65% (after years of talking about “recovery” as if it were happening), they were also safe enough in hedging their prediction to give that a three-year time frame for happening. You can find much better precision and courage here. I’m stating a higher likelihood with a window now of one week. I’m not hedging my bets. Of course, it will take months to play out; but you’ll see the dramatic shift begin before fall has ended.
2015 was a year of moving sideways after the bull market ended. 2016 will be a long year of decline with many plunges along with some brief phantom rallies.
You’ve got a few weeks left to secure your financial positions. After that, things will change rapidly enough that you may not be able to get ahead of the wall of water that will be coming your way. Get as safely out of the way now as you can and watch it unfold from a position that is out of the way.(source)

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE US$ COLLAPSE?

What will happen if the “Dollar Collapses” America Economic Collapse Coming! – What will happen if the Dollar Collapses! Are you Prepared!

8 Signs That a Global Economic Crisis is Coming Soon

When the banking crisis crippled global markets seven years ago, central bankers stepped in as lenders of last resort.
Profligate private-sector loans were moved on to the public-sector balance sheet and vast money-printing gave the global economy room to heal.

Time is now rapidly running out. From China to Brazil, the central banks have lost control and at the same time the global economy is grinding to a halt.
It is only a matter of time before stock markets collapse under the weight of their lofty expectations and record valuations.

The FTSE 100 has now erased its gains for the year, but there are signs things could get a whole lot worse.

1 – China slowdown

China was the great saviour of the world economy in 2008. The launching of an unprecedented stimulus package sparked an infrastructure investment boom. The voracious demand for commodities to fuel its construction boom dragged along oil- and resource-rich emerging markets.

The Chinese economy has now hit a brick wall. Economic growth has dipped below 7pc for the first time in a quarter of a century, according to official data. That probably means the real economy is far weaker.

The People’s Bank of China has pursued several measures to boost the flagging economy. The rate of borrowing has been slashed during the past 12 months from 6pc to 4.85pc. Opting to devalue the currency was a last resort and signalled the great era of Chinese growth is rapidly approaching its endgame.
Data for exports showed an 8.9pc slump in July from the same period a year before. Analysts expected exports to fall only 0.3pc, so this was a huge miss.
The Chinese housing market is also in a perilous state. House prices have fallen sharply after decades of steady growth. For the millions who stored their wealth in property, it makes for unsettling times.
2 – Commodity collapse
The China slowdown has sent shock waves through commodity markets. The Bloomberg Global Commodity index, which tracks the prices of 22 commodity prices, fell to levels last seen at the beginning of this century.

The oil price is the purest barometer of world growth as it is the fuel that drives nearly all industry and production around the globe.
Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, has begun falling once again after a brief rally earlier in the year. It is now hovering above multi-year lows at about $50 per barrel.

Iron ore is an essential raw material needed to feed China’s steel mills, and as such is a good gauge of the construction boom.
The benchmark iron ore price has fallen to $56 per tonne, less than half its $140 per tonne level in January 2014.
3 – Resource sector credit crisis
Billions of dollars in loans were raised on global capital markets to fund new mines and oil exploration that was only ever profitable at previous elevated prices.
With oil and metals prices having collapsed, many of these projects are now loss-making. The loans raised to back the projects are now under water and investors may never see any returns.

Nowhere has this been felt more acutely than shale oil and gas drilling in the US. Tumbling oil prices have squeezed the finances of US drillers. Two of the biggest issuers of junk bonds in the past five years, Chesapeake and California Resources, have seen the value of their bonds tumble as panic grips capital markets.

As more debt needs refinancing in future years, there is a risk the contagion will spread rapidly.
4 – Dominoes begin to fall
The great props to the world economy are now beginning to fall. China is going into reverse. And the emerging markets that consumed so many of our products are crippled by currency devaluation. The famed Brics of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, to whom the West was supposed to pass on the torch of economic growth, are in varying states of disarray.
The central banks are rapidly losing control. The Chinese stock market has already crashed and disaster was only averted by the government buying billions of shares. Stock markets in Greece are in turmoil as the economy grinds to a halt and the country flirts with ejection from the eurozone.
Earlier this year, investors flocked to the safe-haven currency of the Swiss franc but as a €1.1 trillion quantitative easing programme devalued the euro, the Swiss central bank was forced to abandon its four-year peg to the euro.
5 – Credit markets roll over
As central banks run out of silver bullets then, credit markets are desperately seeking to reprice risk. The London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor), a guide to how worried UK banks are about lending to each other, has been steadily rising during the past 12 months. Part of this process is a healthy return to normal pricing of risk after six years of extraordinary monetary stimulus. However, as the essential transmission systems of lending between banks begin to take the strain, it is quite possible that six years of reliance on central banks for funds has left the credit system unable to cope.

Credit investors are often far better at pricing risk than optimistic equity investors. In the US while the S&P 500 (orange line) continues to soar, the high yield debt market has already begun to fall sharply (white line).

6 – Interest rate shock
Interest rates have been held at emergency lows in the UK and US for around six years. The US is expected to move first, with rates starting to rise from today’s 0pc-0.25pc around the end of the year. Investors have already starting buying dollars in anticipation of a strengthening US currency. UK rate rises are expected to follow shortly after.

7 – Bull market third longest on record
The UK stock market is in its 77th month of a bull market, which began in March 2009. On only two other occasions in history has the market risen for longer. One is in the lead-up to the Great Crash in 1929 and the other before the bursting of the dotcom bubble in the early 2000s.

UK markets have been a beneficiary of the huge balance-sheet expansion in the US. US monetary base, a measure of notes and coins in circulation plus reserves held at the central bank, has more than quadrupled from around $800m to more than $4 trillion since 2008. The stock market has been a direct beneficiary of this money and will struggle now that QE3 has ended.
8 – Overvalued US market
In the US, Professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio – or Shiller CAPE – for the S&P 500 stands at 27.2, some 64pc above its historic average of 16.6. On only three occasions since 1882 has it been higher – in 1929, 2000 and 2007.

 

2016 Will Be Economically Devastating For Millions of Americans