Financial Zombies Cannot See Massive Inflation Coming
Mannarino goes on to say, “What the Fed is not telling you . . . is the economy is dead in the water. The cash is not moving through the system. So, they can print or add digits to a screen from here to oblivion and not get inflation if the cash isn’t moving. That’s why we are not seeing massive inflation – yet. There is going to be a moment when all these extra bills start chasing all these extra goods. What’s going to prompt that to happen is the bond market action. Right now, cash is moving back into the perceived safety of debt. The U.S. 10-year yield is plunging. This is positive to the stock market for now.”
On gold, Mannarino says, “Gold has just hit a high for the year, and that is also a trajectory that will continue. Why will this keep going? Let’s go back to the dollar. Investors don’t want anything to do with the dollar. They are dumping their dollars here. We are going to get, at some point, a massive sell-off in the bond market. Don’t listen to Gregory Mannarino on this. Listen to former Fed Head Alan Greenspan. This is what he says, and he thinks the bond market is in a bubble. . . . Greenspan also said the potential for a rapid sell-off in the bond market is very, very high,”
Mannarino contends a rapid sell-off in bonds “will be very good for gold.” Mannarino also likes physical silver and thinks, “It’s still the most under-valued asset on the planet.”
For a background, China has had an exchange open for about a year where gold can be purchased with yuan, though the volumes so far have been miniscule to this point. China has also been all over the world inking trade deals (in yuan) and investing in all sorts of resources from oil to gold to grains, they have made no secret about this. With the most recent example here. They have trade arrangements and treaties with Russia, Iran and many other non Western nations. They have also “courted” many Western nations privately (remember their meeting with the King of Saudi Arabia?) and actually lured many with their “Silk Road” plans via the AIIB which was huge news last year (but nearly forgotten by Americans at this point?). We also know China has been a huge importer of gold for the last 4-5 years and done so publicly via Shanghai receipts and deliveries.
So what exactly does “oil for yuan” mean? In my opinion, China is basically leading a “mutiny FOR the bounty” (we’ll explain this shortly). The only things holding the dollar up from outright death for many years has been the oil trade (and other trade commerce) between nations and settled in dollars. Anyone wanting to buy oil had to first buy dollars in order to pay for the trade. Anyone getting out of step and suggesting they would accept currency other than dollars was dealt with swiftly and harshly (think Saddam and Mohamar). In other words, the U.S. military “enforced” the deal Henry Kissinger made with the Middle East (lead by Saudi Arabia) where ALL oil was settled in dollars. International trade settlement alone supported the dollar after the Nixon administration defaulted on its promise to exchange one ounce of gold for $35.
China is now suggesting THEY will be the ones to trade oil and not use the dollar for settlement. Instead, settlement will be in yuan. But why now? I believe for one of two reasons or more likely both. First, and as we have recently spoken about, it very well may be that the US. military technology has been cracked or leap frogged. It is looking like a distinct possibility and if so, China/Russia now have less fear of U.S. military “retribution”.
The other possibility pertains to gold. We have no way of knowing whether or not the “bottom of the barrel” as far as gold reserves is in sight but we can have a pretty good idea. Physical demand for gold has exceeded mine supply by some 1,500 tons for the last 20 years, “Scrap” supply can not have made up the shortfall. The only place the gold to supply for delivery can have come from are Western (think Ft. Knox) vaults. If the Chinese know their “supplier” of gold is at or near zero, this could also explain “why now”. My bet is both, military technology AND lack of gold supply are at work here.
The next question is this, does China want to become the world’s reserve currency? I do no think so as they have seen economies of the issuers of the reserve currency destroyed time after time throughout history. Rather, China wants to lead the parade away from the dollar or at least steer it. Whether via a larger slice of the SDR pie, or another as yet to be introduced currency I do not know.
What we do know: the U.S. is broke and very likely nearly out of gold. The U.S. has “led” the world with an iron fist and trampled many in its wake …pissing off nations all the while over the last 20+ years in particular. China knows this and also knows the rest of the world will follow them just as school kids will follow the one who stands up to the school bully. Besides, on the surface it certainly looks like better (more fair) trade and settlement terms for anyone who goes along.
Wrapping this up, we need to know “what” all this means? Most importantly it means the world will have an alternative to settling in dollars …which means less overall demand for dollars. This alone will weaken the dollar much further than the huge move we have already seen. A weaker dollar will mean much higher prices (inflation) for the imported goods we no longer manufacture at home. There is a bigger problem here that few are thinking of yet. How will the U.S. settle trade if the dollar becomes so weak it becomes shunned …AND we have no gold for international settlement left? This is a very serious question and one pertaining directly to the standard of living for Americans.
Answering the question as to the meaning of “mutiny for the bounty”, this is simple. You can think of “bounty” as “prosperity” if you will. Prosperity in today’s world means you produce goods and trade, trade, trade! By and large I believe the world wants peace and prosperity …which go hand in hand and are not mutually exclusive. If the world is offered a “more fair” way to settle trade, will they go for it? You bet! Especially if they are offered “cover” or protection from the U.S. military …for trading in a currency they deem more fair than dollars!
So it seems to me, China is leading a world that is ready to follow in a direction away from dollars. As for gold, it will explode in price in terms of a weakening dollar but there is potentially more. China without ANY DOUBT is THE largest holder of gold on the planet. It is for this reason China now has the ability to “price” gold wherever they want to. In other words, China can mark the price of gold to the moon which will do several things. It will make them the wealthiest nation on the planet while at the same time making it extremely expensive and difficult for anyone to catch up by amassing their own gold horde.
As to the yuan becoming gold backed, I doubt it in reality. I highly doubt they will ever “exchange” their current gold horde. It is more likely they will only exchange further gold accumulated from this point forward but that is a story for another day.
We have speculated for several years that China might try to supplant the dollar. It now makes sense and one would have to wonder why they wouldn’t lead the mutiny if they were to become the new captain?
You Have Been Warned: Markets Situation Much Worse Than You Realize
By Steve St. Angelo / GoldSeekIt’s about time that I share with you all a little secret. The situation in the markets is much worse than you realize. While that may sound like someone who has been crying “wolf” for the past several years, in all honesty, the public has no idea just how dire our present situation has become.
The amount of debt, leverage, deceit, corruption, and fraud in the economic markets, financial system, and in the energy industry are off the charts. Unfortunately, the present condition is even much worse when we consider “INSIDER INFORMATION.”
What do I mean by insider information… I will explain that in a minute. However, I receive a lot of comments on my site and emails stating that the U.S. Dollar is A-okay and our domestic oil industry will continue pumping out cheap oil for quite some time. They say… “No need to worry. Business, as usual, will continue for the next 2-3 decades.”
I really wish that were true. Believe me, when I say this, I am not rooting for a collapse or breakdown of our economic and financial markets. However, the information, data, and facts that I have come across suggest that the U.S. and global economy will hit a brick wall within the next few years.
How I Acquire My Information, Data & Facts
To put out the original information in my articles and reports, I spend a great deal of time researching the internet on official websites, alternative media outlets, and various blogs. Some of the blogs that I read, I find more interesting information in the comment section than in the article. For example, the Peakoilbarrel.com site is visited by a lot of engineers and geologists in the oil and gas industry. Their comments provide important “on-hands insight” in the energy sector not found on the Mainstream Media.I also have a lot of contacts in the various industries that either forward information via email or share during phone conversations. Some of the information that I receive from these contacts, I include in my articles and reports. However, there is a good bit of information that I can’t share, because it was done with the understanding that I would not reveal the source or intelligence.
Of course, some readers may find that a bit cryptic, but it’s the truth. Individuals have contacted me from all over the world and in different levels of industry and business. Some people are the working staff who understand th reality taking place in the plant or field, while others are higher ranking officers. Even though I have been receiving this sort of contact for the past 4-5 years, the number has increased significantly over the past year and a half.
That being said, these individuals contacted me after coming across my site because they wanted to share valuable information and their insight of what was going on in their respective industires. The common theme from most of these contacts was…. GOSH STEVE, IT’S MUCH WORSE THAN YOU REALIZE. Yes, that is what I heard over and over again.
If my readers and followers believe I am overly pessimistic or cynical, your hair will stand up on your neck if you knew just how bad the situation was BEHIND THE SCENES.
Unfortunately, we in the Alternative Media have been lobotomized to a certain degree due to the constant propaganda from the Mainstream Media and market intervention by the Fed and Central Banks. A perfect example of the massive market rigging is found in Zerohedge’s recent article; Central Banks Have Purchased $2 Trillion In Assets In 2017 :
….. so far in 2017 there has been $1.96 trillion of central bank purchases of financial assets in 2017 alone, as central bank balance sheets have grown by $11.26 trillion since Lehman to $15.6 trillion.What is interesting about the nearly $2 trillion in Central Bank purchases so far in 2017, is that the average for each year was only $1.5 trillion. We can plainly see that the Central Banks had to ramp up asset purchases as the Ponzi Scheme seems to be getting out of hand.
So, how bad is the current economic and financial situation in the world today? If we take a look at the chart in the next section, it may give you a clue.
THE DEATH OF BEAR STEARNS: A Warning For Things To Come
It seems like a lot of people already forgot about the gut-wrenching 2008-2009 economic and financial crash. During the U.S. Banking collapse, two of the country’s largest investment banks, Lehman Brothers, and Bear Stearns went belly up. Lehman Brothers was founded in 1850 and Bear Stearns in 1923. In just one year, both of those top Wall Street Investment Banks ceased to exist.Now, during the 2001-2007 U.S. housing boom heyday, it seemed like virtually no one had a clue just how rotten of a company Bear Stearns had become. Looking at the chart below, we can see the incredible RISE & FALL of Bear Stearns:
In just a little more than a year, Bear Stearns stock fell to a mere $2… a staggering 98% decline. Of course, the financial networks and analysts were providing guidance and forecasts that Bear Stearns was a fine and healthy company. For example, when Bear was dealing with some negative issues in March 2008, CBNC’s Mad Money, Jim Cramer made the following statement in response to a caller on his show (Source):
Tuesday, March 11, 2008, On Mad Money
Dear Jim: “Should I be worried about Bear Stearns in terms of liquidity and get my money out of there?” – Peter
Jim Cramer: “No! No! No! Bear Stearns is fine. Do not take your money out. Bear sterns is not in trouble. If anything, they’re more likely to be taken over. Don’t move your money from Bear. That’s just being silly. Don’t be silly.”
Thanks to Jim, many investors took his advice. So, what happened to Bear Stearns after Jim Cramer gave the company a clean bill of health?
Regardless, Bear Stearns stock price was worth ZERO many years before it collapsed in 2008. If financial analysts had seriously looked into the fundamentals in the Mortgage Backed Security market and the bank’s financial balance sheet several years before 2008, they would have realized Bear Stearns was rotten to the core. But, this is the way of Wall Street and Central Banks. Everything is fine, until the day it isn’t.
And that day is close at hand.
THE RECORD LOW VOLATILITY INDEX: Signals Big Market Trouble Ahead
Even though I have presented a few charts on the VIX – Volatility Index in past articles, I thought this one would provide a better picture of the coming disaster in the U.S. stock markets:
As a reminder, the VIX Index measures the amount of fear in the markets. When the VIX Index is at a low, the market believes everything is A-OKAY. However, when the VIX surges higher, then it means that fear and panic have over-taken investment sentiment, as blood runs in the streets.
As the Fed and Central Banks continue playing the game of Monopoly with Trillions of Dollars of money printing and asset purchases, the party won’t last for long as DEATH comes to all highly leveraged garbage assets and Ponzi Schemes.
To get an idea just how much worse the situation has become than we realize, let’s take a look at the energy fundamental that is gutting everything in its path.
WHY THE BIG MARKET COLLAPSE IS COMING: It’s The Energy, Stupid
Even though I belong to the Alternative Media Community, I am amazed at the lack of understanding by most of the precious metals analysts when it comes to energy. While I respect what many of these gold and silver analysts have to say, they exclude the most important factor in their forecasts. This critical factor is the Falling EROI – Energy Returned On Investment.As I mentioned earlier in the article, I speak to many people on the phone from various industries. Yesterday, I was fortunate enough to chat with Bedford Hill of the Hill’s Groupfor over 90 minutes. What an interesting conversation. Ole Bedford knows we are toast. Unfortunately, only 0.01% of the population may understand the details of the Hill’s Group work.
Here is an explanation of the Hill’s Group:
The Hill’s Group is an association of consulting engineers and professional project managers. Our goal is to support our clients by providing them with the most relevant, and up to-date skill sets needed to manage their organizations. Depletion: A determination for the world’s petroleum reserve provides organizational long range planners, and policy makers with the essential information they will need in today’s rapidly changing environment.
I asked Bedford if he agreed with me that the hyperinflationary collapse of Venezuela was due to the falling oil price rather than its corrupt Communist Government. He concurred. Bedford stated that the total BTU energy cost to extract Venezuela’s heavy oil was higher than the BTU’s the market could afford. Bedford went on to say that when the oil price was at $80, Venezuela could still make enough profit to continue running its inefficient, corrupt government. However, now that the price of oil is trading below $50, it’s gutting the entire Venezuelan economy.
During our phone call, Bedford discussed his ETP Oil model, shown in his chart below. If there is one chart that totally screws up the typical Austrian School of Economics student or follower, it’s this baby:
The ETP Cost Curve goes up until it reached an inflection point in 2012… then IT PEAKED. The black line coming down on the right-hand side of the chart represents “Maximum Consumer Price.” This line is the maximum price that the end consumer can afford. Again, it has nothing to do with supply and demand rather, it has everything to do with the cost of production and the remaining net energy in the barrel of oil.
I decided to add the RED dots for years 2014-2016. These additional annual oil price figures remain in or near the Maximum Consumer Price line. According to Bedford, the oil price will continue lower by 2020. However, the actual annual oil price in 2015 and 2016 was much lower than the estimated figures Bedford, and his group had calculated. Thus, we could see some volatility in the price over the next few years.
Regardless, the oil price trend will be lower. And as the oil price continues to fall, it will gut the U.S. and global oil industry. There is nothing the Fed and Central Banks can do to stop it. Yes, it’s true that the U.S. government could step in and bail out the U.S. shale oil industry, but this would not be a long-term solution.
Why? Let me explain with the following chart:
- this massive amount of debt came from the stored economic energy via the various investors who provided the U.S. shale energy industry with the funds to continue producing oil at a loss. We must remember, INVESTMENT is stored economic energy. Thus, pension plans, mutual funds, insurance funds, etc., had taken investments gained over the years and gave it to the lousy U.S. shale oil industry for a short-term high yield.
So, what does that mean? It means… IT TOOK MORE ENERGY TO PRODUCE THE SHALE OIL than was DELIVERED TO THE MARKET. Regrettably, the overwhelming majority of shale oil debt will never be repaid. As the oil price continues to head lower, the supposed shale oil break-even price will be crushed. Without profits, debts pile up even higher.
Do you all see what is going on here? And let me say this. What I have explained in this article, DOES NOT INCLUDE INSIDER INFORMATION, which suggests “The situation is even much worse than you realize… LOL.”
For all my followers who believe business, as usual, will continue for another 2-3 decades, YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED. The energy situation is in far worse shape than you can imagine.
PRECIOUS METALS: Are Stores Of Economic Energy.. Stocks, Bonds & Real Estate Are Energy IOU’s
If you want to lose all your money (most of it), I suggest that you keep it invested in most STOCKS, BONDS and REAL ESTATE. I still receive emails from individuals who try to convince me that real estate is a safe-haven during economic distress. Yes, real estate was good to own in the past, but we are living in much different times today.Years after the markets finally crack, I see thousands and thousands of suburban homes, commercial and industrial properties empty… never to be used again. We just won’t have the energy to run them. Thus, there will be Trillions of Dollars of sunk investment capital gone forever.
So, if you are still watching late night infomercials on how to become RICH buying Real Estate, you have my sympathies.
Lastly, if you are one of the few Americans not suffering from BRAIN DAMAGE, I suggest that you consider owning some physical precious metals to protect your wealth. Once the markets finally implode, there will be few bids for most STOCKS, BONDS and REAL ESTATE.
The time to get out of highly-inflated garbage assets is before everyone else tries to.
GOD HATH A SENSE OF HUMOR….
