Fatima Watch: Putin's Russia in biggest Arctic military push since Soviet fall
The
nuclear icebreaker Lenin, the pride and joy of the Soviet Union's
Arctic great game, lies at perpetual anchor in the frigid water here. A
relic of the Cold War, it is now a museum.
But
nearly three decades after the Lenin was taken out of service to be
turned into a visitor attraction, Russia is again on the march in the
Arctic and building new nuclear icebreakers.
It
is part of a push to firm Moscow's hand in the High North as it vies
for dominance with traditional rivals Canada, the United States, and
Norway as well as newcomer China.
Interviews
with officials and military analysts and reviews of government
documents show Russia's build-up is the biggest since the 1991 Soviet
fall and will, in some areas, give Moscow more military capabilities
than the Soviet Union once had.
The
expansion has far-reaching financial and geopolitical ramifications.
The Arctic is estimated to hold more hydrocarbon reserves than Saudi
Arabia and Moscow is putting down a serious military marker.
"History
is repeating itself," Vladimir Blinov, a guide on board the icebreaker
Lenin, which is named after communist revolutionary Vladimir Lenin, told
a recent tour group.
"Back
then (in the 1950s) it was the height of the Cold War and the United
States was leading in some areas. But we beat the Americans and built
the world's first nuclear ship (the Lenin). The situation today is
similar."
Under
President Vladimir Putin, Moscow is rushing to re-open abandoned Soviet
military, air and radar bases on remote Arctic islands and to build new
ones, as it pushes ahead with a claim to almost half a million square
miles of the Arctic.
It
regularly releases pictures of its troops training in white fatigues,
wielding assault rifles as they zip along on sleighs pulled by reindeer.
The
Arctic, the U.S. Geological Survey estimates, holds oil and gas
reserves equivalent to 412 billion barrels of oil, about 22 percent of
the world’s undiscovered oil and gas.
Low
oil prices and Western sanctions imposed over Moscow's actions in
Ukraine mean new offshore Arctic projects have for now been mothballed,
but the Kremlin is playing a longer game.
It
is building three nuclear icebreakers, including the world's largest,
to bolster its fleet of around 40 breakers, six of which are nuclear. No
other country has a nuclear breaker fleet, used to clear channels for
military and civilian ships.
Russia's
Northern Fleet, based near Murmansk in the Kola Bay's icy waters, is
also due to get its own icebreaker, its first, and two ice-capable
corvettes armed with cruise missiles.
"Under
(Soviet leader Mikhail) Gorbachev and (Russian President Boris)
Yeltsin, our Arctic border areas were stripped bare," said Professor
Pavel Makarevich, a member of the Russian Geographical Society. "Now
they are being restored."
'AGGRESSIVE STEPS'
The
build-up, which echoes moves in Crimea and Kaliningrad, has been
noticed in Washington. U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis told his
confirmation hearing this month it was "not to our advantage to leave
any part of the world" to others.
Mattis,
in a separate written submission, described Moscow's Arctic moves as
"aggressive steps" and pledged to prioritize developing a U.S. strategy,
according to Senator Dan Sullivan.
That
poses a potential dilemma for President Donald Trump, who wants to
repair U.S.-Russia ties and team up with Moscow in Syria rather than get
sucked into an Arctic arms race.
The
build-up is causing jitters elsewhere. Some 300 U.S. Marines landed in
Norway this month for a six-month deployment, the first time since World
War Two that foreign troops have been allowed to be stationed there.
And
with memories of Russia's 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimea still
fresh, NATO is watching closely. Six of its members held an exercise in
the region in 2015.
The
Soviet military packed more firepower in the Arctic, but it was set up
to wage nuclear war with the United States not conventional warfare.
Arctic islands were staging posts for long-range bombers to fly to
America.
But
in an era when a slow-motion battle for the Arctic's energy reserves is
unfolding, Russia is creating a permanent and nimble conventional
military presence with different and sometimes superior capabilities.
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